It resembled a scene from the Cold War. Kim Jong Un, North Korea's leader, arrived in Russia's Far East on his luxurious bulletproof train. He was greeted by a military brass band and soon met Vladimir Putin. During a meal featuring duck salad and crab dumplings, washed down with Russian wines, the two leaders toasted what Kim called the "sacred fight" against Western imperialism.
Both leaders are throwbacks in their own ways. Kim is the grandson of a tyrant imposed on North Korea by Stalin. Putin often looks back fondly at Russia's imperial past. However, the threat they pose today is real and imminent. An alliance between them could change the course of the war in Ukraine by providing Russia with a new supply of weapons, potentially escalating a nuclear-arms race in Asia.
North Korea is like an extreme version of Russia under Putin: a militarized society, isolated from the West, and ruled by a despot who disregards human life. Yet, despite its poverty and isolation, North Korea suddenly has something Russia desperately needs: more artillery shells. Russia used over 10 million of them last year and is running low. North Korea, with its Soviet-style armed forces, has millions in storage and the industrial capacity to manufacture more. While the failure rate of its shells is high, even a portion of them would be better than nothing for Russia. North Korea could also offer other weapons, such as rockets or howitzers.
A deal over munitions could come at a crucial moment in Ukraine's counter-offensive, potentially slowing its advances and increasing attrition in the coming winter months. North Korea, in exchange, might seek access to Russian missile technology to enhance its nuclear weapons delivery system, along with Russian satellite and submarine secrets.
Such a deal could make life harder for Ukraine's soldiers and shift the nuclear balance in Asia, raising concerns among neighboring countries. A Kim dynasty capable of launching missiles from submarines would be particularly worrisome.
China, which has influence over both dictatorships, is an unpredictable factor. While it doesn't mind a prolonged and bloody war in Ukraine to divide Europe and America, it claims to be wary of nuclear proliferation. A Russia-North Korea deal would test this claim.
For the West, further sanctions on Russia or North Korea would likely have limited impact. Instead, it should increase supplies of munitions to Ukraine to help it defend itself from Russia. Transparency on arms deals between Moscow and Pyongyang should be a priority, along with reaffirming America's commitment to protecting its allies in Asia under its nuclear umbrella.
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