RIL Q3 results: Nomura India said it sees O2C Ebitda of Rs 14,000 crore, down 14 per cent QoQ, underpinned by a decline in refining margins to $10 per barrel against $12 per barrel in Q2FY24 and the prevailing weakness in petchem.
Nomura India has come out with a note on oil & gas sector, where it expected Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) to report a 4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in net profit for the third quarter later today. For now, the brokerage has suggested a share price target of Rs 2,985 on the stock.
Nomura India expects RIL to report consolidated revenue of Rs 2,24,480 crore, up 3 per cent YoY. Ebitda is seen rising 14 per cent YoY to Rs 40,170 crore. Oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business is seen reporting flat Ebitda growth, upstream 35 per cent and refining 17 per cent degrowth. Refining throughput is seen flat.
"We estimate RIL’s 3QFY24F consolidated Ebitda to moderate by 2 per cent sequentially to Rs 401.7 billion, as sustained strong growth in the consumer-facing businesses of Jio and retail will be offset by the decline in O2C underpinned by the decline in middle distillate spreads and lower petchem margins," Nomura India said on January 18.
Nomura India said it sees O2C Ebitda of Rs 14,000 crore, down 14 per cent QoQ, underpinned by a decline in refining margins to $10 per barrel against $12 per barrel in Q2FY24 and the prevailing weakness in petchem.
"We note that key spreads for polymers – PE and PP declined 5 per cent and 6 per cent QoQ, respectively, while PVC declined 41 per cent QoQ. We factor upstream Ebitda of Rs 5,200 crore to increase 10 per cent QoQ underpinned by an increase in volumes to over 30mmscmd, while realisations will moderate q-q on the decline in ceiling HPHT prices," Nomura India said.
RIL may continue to deliver strongly on the consumer-facing businesses, Nomura India said. "We estimate Jio’s Ebitda of Rs 13,500 crore to rise 5 per cent QoQ underpinned by strong EoP subscriber additions of 9.6 million and a modest 1 per cent increase in ARPU to R 183.5 per month. We estimate Reliance Retail's Ebitda of Rs 6,150 crore, to increase 10 per cent QoQ benefiting from growth in the festive quarter, robust pace of store additions and rising footfalls," it said.
