Synopsis : India’s Russian oil imports surged to an 11-month high in June, reinforcing Moscow’s lead in India’s crude basket despite looming US tariff threats. New Delhi has conveyed its energy concerns to US lawmakers, but refiners remain in wait-and-watch mode as geopolitical risks build.
India’s hunger for discounted Russian crude remains unshaken, with imports hitting an 11-month high of 2.08 million barrels per day in June, according to Kpler data. Russia now accounts for a towering 43.2% of India’s total oil imports, overshadowing Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE combined, even as the US considers a controversial bill proposing 500% tariffs on nations trading with Russia.
Foreign Minister S Jaishankar, during a Washington visit, made clear that India’s energy interests were “made conversant” to Senator Lindsey Graham, a key sponsor of the bill, as concerns grow over potential ripple effects on India’s import costs and trade ties with its largest trading partner. The bill, aimed at pushing Russia to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war, may force India to recalibrate its crude sourcing, but for now, refiners are capitalising on discounted Russian barrels.
India, which meets 88% of its crude needs through imports, has leaned heavily on Russia since the Ukraine war triggered Western sanctions and Moscow offered price incentives. From being a fringe supplier, Russia has become India’s top crude partner, ensuring energy security while supporting forex reserves. The resilience of this trade has also elevated Russia into the ranks of India’s largest trading partners, despite pressure from Western allies.
While Russian oil itself is not sanctioned, the US-led price cap of $60 per barrel limits Western shipping and insurance involvement if crude is traded above that threshold. Yet, alternative payment and logistics channels have kept Russian crude competitive for Indian refiners. Kpler’s Sumit Ritolia expects Russia to remain India’s largest supplier in the 35–40% range, unless escalated sanctions disrupt flows or increase compliance costs for Indian buyers.
West Asian suppliers continue to hold significant, if diminished, shares in India’s oil basket, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE maintaining steady supplies, while India diversifies further with African, Latin American, and US volumes to hedge geopolitical and price risks.
As the US bill advances, India’s strategy will balance pragmatism and resilience, prioritising affordability while preparing for policy shocks, ensuring the world’s third-largest oil consumer keeps its energy security intact in a turbulent geopolitical landscape.
Disclaimer : This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
