Synopsis: Indian markets opened on a cautious tone as traders awaited the RBI’s monetary policy announcement and guidance on inflation and growth. Investor focus also remained on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s India visit, adding a layer of geopolitical watchfulness to market sentiment.
The Indian equity market began Friday’s session on a muted note, with key benchmark indices slipping slightly as investors geared up for the much-anticipated Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy announcement. The atmosphere remained cautious, amplified further by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrival in India for a bilateral summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
At the opening bell, the Nifty 50 stood at 25,999.80, down 33.95 points (-0.13%), while the BSE Sensex opened at 85,125.48, declining by 139.84 points (-0.16%), signaling investors’ preference for staying defensive until the central bank’s policy stance becomes clearer.
Market experts emphasized that the RBI Governor’s commentary will be the key driver for the day. Analysts expect the central bank not only to maintain its neutral stance but also to revise its inflation outlook downward. Banking and Market Expert Ajay Bagga noted that the RBI may cut its inflation projections for Q4 FY2026 and for FY2027 by 0.2%, while raising the FY2026 GDP growth estimate to 7%.
Bagga added that the RBI has already implemented a cumulative 100 bps rate cut since February. During this period, outstanding loan rates dropped 54 bps, while deposit rates fell by only 20 bps. Meanwhile, rates on fresh loans and deposits declined by 100 bps and 89 bps, respectively — reflecting a gradual transmission of monetary easing.
Broader market indices also reflected the cautious mood:
- Nifty 100 dipped 0.13%
- Nifty Midcap opened flat but remained positive
- Nifty Smallcap slipped marginally into the red
Sectoral performance remained mixed. Nifty IT, Metals, Pharma, and Healthcare recorded minor gains, offering some support to the market. However, sectors like Auto (-0.10%), FMCG (-0.11%), Private Bank (-0.26%), and Consumer Durables (-0.33%) were under pressure.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the GIFT Nifty suggested a flat opening, with traders hesitant ahead of the policy outcome. He also noted that persistent weakness in the Indian Rupee has accelerated foreign portfolio outflows, influencing market behavior. According to him, Nifty is expected to move within a 25,900–26,100 range, supported strongly at the 25,900 level, as indicated by two consecutive closes above the rising trendline.
He further pointed out that the index is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern, showing a controlled uptrend but with increasing internal pressure — a sign that markets may witness volatility post-policy.
Adding to the day’s macro environment, Russian President Vladimir Putin landed in Delhi on Thursday evening for a two-day state visit. During this time, he will attend the 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit with PM Narendra Modi, focusing on strategic, defense, and trade cooperation — developments global investors will also be tracking closely.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Market decisions should be made after consulting a certified financial advisor.
