Synopsis : Macquarie remains bullish on India’s power sector as electricity demand hits record highs and a massive transmission investment cycle takes shape. The brokerage’s top picks include NTPC, JSW Energy, and Power Grid, with Power Grid offering the highest upside potential of nearly 40%.
India’s power sector is entering a new growth phase, driven by rising electricity consumption, renewable energy expansion, and large-scale infrastructure investments.
According to global brokerage Macquarie, the country’s energy landscape is undergoing a structural transformation across generation, transmission, and distribution segments, creating attractive opportunities for select utility stocks.
NTPC Emerges as Macquarie’s Top Utility Pick
Macquarie has placed NTPC at the top of its preferred utility stock rankings, citing strong demand fundamentals and long-term growth visibility.
The brokerage's order of preference is:
NTPC > JSW Energy > Power Grid > Adani Green Energy > Adani Power > Adani Energy Solutions
Macquarie has assigned a target price of ₹480 for NTPC, indicating an upside potential of approximately 35% from current levels.
Macquarie’s Preferred Utility Stocks
| Company | Target Price | Upside / Downside |
|---|---|---|
| NTPC | ₹480 | +35% |
| Power Grid | ₹400 | +40% |
| JSW Energy | ₹720 | +26% |
| Adani Green Energy | ₹1,700 | +11% |
| Adani Power | ₹230 | +2% |
| Adani Energy Solutions | ₹1,450 | -8% |
Among the listed names, Power Grid Corporation offers the highest potential upside at nearly 40%, followed closely by NTPC.
India's Power Demand Continues to Surge
One of the key reasons behind Macquarie's optimism is India's rapidly growing electricity consumption.
The brokerage highlighted that India's installed power capacity could rise from approximately 538 GW currently to nearly 900 GW by FY32.
Peak power demand has already reached a record 271 GW in May 2026, reflecting strong consumption across industries, households, and commercial establishments.
The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) expects power demand to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 6% through 2030.
Additional growth drivers include:
- Rising industrial activity
- Increasing air-conditioner penetration
- Data centre expansion
- Electric vehicle adoption
Renewable Energy Growth Accelerates
While renewable energy continues to gain momentum, Macquarie believes conventional energy sources will remain critical for grid stability.
According to the brokerage, coal-based generation will continue to play an important role in meeting base-load power requirements as renewable sources remain intermittent.
India may require nearly 74 GW of energy storage capacity in the coming years to effectively manage renewable power generation and maintain grid reliability.
Transmission Sector Entering Massive Investment Cycle
A major theme highlighted by Macquarie is the emergence of a transmission-led capital expenditure cycle.
The brokerage estimates that India may need investments worth nearly $51 billion by 2035-36 to strengthen its transmission network and support growing renewable energy capacity.
As solar and wind projects are often located far from demand centres, robust transmission infrastructure will be essential to ensure efficient power distribution across the country.
This outlook strengthens the investment case for Power Grid Corporation, which remains one of Macquarie’s key beneficiaries of the upcoming infrastructure cycle.
Distribution Companies Showing Improvement
Macquarie also noted significant progress in the financial health of power distribution companies (DISCOMs).
The brokerage highlighted:
- Lower Aggregate Technical & Commercial (AT&C) losses
- Improved billing efficiency
- Wider adoption of smart meters
- Reduced overdue payments
Government reforms under the Revamped Distribution Sector Scheme (RDSS) are helping improve operational efficiency across the sector.
Key Risks Investors Should Monitor
Despite its positive outlook, Macquarie cautioned investors about potential challenges, including:
- Delays in land acquisition
- Regulatory approvals and clearances
- Supply chain disruptions
- Fuel availability issues
- Grid reliability concerns
- Geopolitical uncertainties
Outlook
Macquarie believes India’s power sector is entering a long-term structural growth cycle supported by rising electricity demand, renewable energy investments, transmission infrastructure expansion, and improving distribution economics.
Among utility stocks, NTPC remains the brokerage’s top pick, while Power Grid stands out for offering the highest upside potential amid an expected multi-billion-dollar transmission investment opportunity.
Disclaimer : This article is for informational purposes only and is based on brokerage reports and publicly available information. It should not be considered investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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