Synopsis : India's jewellery sector continues to shine despite gold prices surging over 80% year-on-year. Nuvama remains bullish on Titan, citing strong buyer growth, old-gold exchange programs, and brand strength as key advantages over rivals Kalyan Jewellers and Senco Gold.
India's love affair with gold remains intact despite one of the sharpest rallies in the precious metal in recent years. While soaring gold prices have raised concerns about affordability, organised jewellery retailers continue to report robust sales growth, supported by weddings, festivals, and investment-driven purchases.
Against this backdrop, brokerage firm Nuvama has retained a positive outlook on the jewellery sector, with Titan emerging as its preferred stock among listed jewellery companies.
Why Titan Remains Nuvama's Top Pick
According to Nuvama, Titan delivered a strong comeback in customer acquisition during Q4FY26, with buyer additions rising by 8% after several quarters of muted growth.
The company also reported an impressive 45% year-on-year revenue growth excluding bullion sales, driven by strong performance across its jewellery brands.
A major factor supporting Nuvama's positive view is Titan's increasing focus on old-gold exchange programs. These initiatives have helped customers offset rising gold prices while enabling the company to reduce dependence on fresh gold procurement.
The strategy has become even more relevant after the government's decision to increase gold import duty from 6% to 15%.
Revenue Growth: How Titan Compares
While Titan remains Nuvama's preferred pick, some peers have reported even stronger revenue growth.
| Company | Q4FY26 Revenue Growth |
|---|---|
| P N Gadgil Jewellers | 126% |
| Sky Gold | 80.6% |
| Kalyan Jewellers | 68% |
| BlueStone | 48% |
| Titan | 45% |
| Senco Gold | 45% |
Despite Kalyan Jewellers posting higher growth, Nuvama believes Titan's scale, customer franchise, brand strength, and execution capabilities provide a more sustainable competitive advantage.
Gold Prices Are Changing Consumer Behaviour
The sharp rise in gold prices is altering purchasing patterns across the industry.
According to Nuvama, demand has remained resilient despite the nearly 80% increase in gold prices, largely supported by wedding demand and festive purchases.
However, consumers are increasingly shifting toward lightweight jewellery, lower-carat products, and exchange-based purchases to manage budgets.
Investment demand has also surged. Several retailers reported strong growth in gold bars and coin sales, with Titan's coin business growing more than 200% year-on-year.
While this supports revenue growth, it also creates margin pressure since coins typically generate lower profitability than studded jewellery.
Expansion Remains a Key Growth Driver
Leading jewellery retailers continue to aggressively expand their store networks across India.
| Company | Expansion Plans |
| Titan | Around 40 new Tanishq stores annually |
| Kalyan Jewellers | 150 stores planned in FY27 |
| Senco Gold | 18-20 stores planned in FY27 |
| P N Gadgil Jewellers | 25 stores over the next year |
| BlueStone | Targeting 20% annual network growth |
Much of this expansion is focused on Tier-2, Tier-3, and Tier-4 cities, where organised jewellery penetration remains relatively low and growth opportunities are substantial.
Margin Trends Remain Mixed
Although revenue growth remains healthy, profitability trends differ across companies.
Titan's operating margins have come under pressure due to a higher share of lower-margin gold coins and increasing gold content within studded jewellery.
Meanwhile, some regional players have benefited from operating leverage and inventory gains resulting from rising gold prices.
| Company | Margin Trend |
| Titan | EBIT margin maintained at 11-11.5% |
| Senco Gold | EBITDA margin target of 7.5%-7.8% |
| DP Abhushan | Margin expansion to 7.61% |
| Thangamayil Jewellery | Strong EBITDA margin improvement |
| BlueStone | Margins impacted by ESOP expenses |
Old-Gold Exchange Becoming a Major Industry Trend
One of the most important themes emerging across the jewellery industry is the rapid growth of old-gold exchange programs.
These programs allow customers to exchange existing jewellery for new purchases, helping them manage higher gold prices while reducing retailers' reliance on fresh gold imports.
Nuvama believes this trend will become increasingly important as gold prices remain elevated and import duties stay high.
Titan's leadership in this segment is one of the reasons the brokerage continues to favour the company over its peers.
Outlook
The Indian jewellery sector continues to benefit from strong cultural demand, favourable demographics, and increasing penetration of organised retail.
While elevated gold prices and higher import duties present challenges, companies with strong brands, effective exchange programs, expanding retail networks, and growing customer bases are likely to outperform.
According to Nuvama, Titan remains best positioned among listed jewellery retailers due to its improving buyer growth, successful old-gold recycling strategy, strong brand portfolio, and nationwide expansion plans.
As consumer behaviour evolves and organised players gain market share, the brokerage believes Titan continues to offer the most balanced combination of growth, scale, and long-term visibility within the sector.
Disclaimer : This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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