Synopsis : Motilal Oswal has reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on Waaree Energies with a target price of Rs 3,825, citing rising rooftop solar demand, a widening manufacturing capacity gap in India and the company’s aggressive expansion plans in India and the United States.
Waaree Energies is back in focus after domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal reaffirmed its positive stance on the solar manufacturer, assigning a target price of Rs 3,825 that implies nearly 26% upside from current levels.
According to the brokerage, Waaree is positioned to benefit from a structural shift taking place within India’s solar industry. While utility-scale projects have historically driven growth, demand is increasingly coming from rooftop installations, commercial and industrial projects, government-backed solarisation schemes and emerging power-intensive sectors such as data centres.
Motilal Oswal believes the company’s investment case is supported by three major factors: accelerating domestic solar demand, a growing shortage of manufacturing capacity and Waaree’s ongoing expansion across multiple geographies.
India’s solar demand is becoming more diversified
One of the biggest changes highlighted by the brokerage is the evolving nature of solar demand in India.
For years, utility-scale solar parks dominated new installations. However, rooftop solar systems, commercial and industrial projects and the PM-KUSUM scheme are now contributing more than half of annual solar installations across the country.
According to Motilal Oswal, these segments have become increasingly important drivers of growth and are likely to remain a key source of demand over the coming years.
While utility-scale projects continue to contribute significantly to overall installations, their share is expected to gradually decline as distributed solar adoption accelerates across households, businesses and agricultural users.
Multiple demand drivers support long-term growth
The brokerage expects strong solar demand to emerge from several areas simultaneously.
Rooftop solar installations continue to benefit from government incentives and rising electricity costs. Commercial and industrial consumers are increasingly adopting solar power to reduce energy expenses and meet sustainability targets. The PM-KUSUM scheme is supporting solar deployment in the agricultural sector, while utility-scale projects remain an important contributor to overall capacity additions.
Beyond these traditional segments, Motilal Oswal also sees incremental demand emerging from data centres, manufacturing expansion and broader electrification trends across the economy.
As India's energy consumption continues to rise, solar power is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing sources of new generation capacity.
Manufacturing capacity remains a key bottleneck
A central pillar of Motilal Oswal’s bullish view is the growing gap between solar demand and domestic manufacturing capacity.
The brokerage estimates that India could install around 35 GW of solar alternating current capacity annually over the next several years. Supporting that level of deployment would require significantly higher manufacturing capacity across the solar value chain, including ingots, wafers, cells and modules.
However, currently announced domestic manufacturing capacity remains below projected requirements.
According to the report, announced ingot and wafer capacity currently stands at roughly 50-60 GW, excluding Reliance Industries. This compares with an estimated requirement of around 100 GW of integrated manufacturing capacity.
The resulting supply-demand imbalance could create favourable conditions for established manufacturers such as Waaree that are actively expanding capacity.
Waaree’s expansion plans remain on track
Motilal Oswal also highlighted Waaree’s ongoing capacity additions as a major growth catalyst.
The company is expected to commission 10 GW of domestic solar cell manufacturing capacity and 2.6 GW of solar module manufacturing capacity in the United States during the second half of FY27.
These projects are expected to strengthen Waaree’s position both in India and international markets while also improving vertical integration across its manufacturing operations.
The brokerage noted that the company’s revenue base is becoming increasingly diversified. Approximately 54% of FY26 sales came from retail and overseas markets, reducing dependence on any single business segment.
This diversification could help provide greater stability as the company scales operations over the coming years.
Ambitious revenue target for 2030
One of the most notable aspects of the report is Waaree’s long-term growth ambition.
According to Motilal Oswal, the company has set a revenue target of approximately Rs 1 trillion by 2030.
Achieving this goal would require an implied compound annual growth rate of roughly 39% and would represent a significant increase from current revenue levels.
The target reflects management’s confidence in both domestic solar demand and the company’s ability to capture a larger share of the global solar manufacturing opportunity.
What investors should watch
For investors, several factors are likely to remain important over the coming quarters.
The progress of Waaree’s manufacturing expansion projects, particularly the commissioning of domestic cell capacity and US module facilities, will be closely monitored. Investors will also watch trends in rooftop solar adoption, commercial and industrial demand, policy support for domestic manufacturing and the pace at which India expands its solar manufacturing ecosystem.
The broader renewable energy sector remains dependent on execution, government incentives and global supply-chain developments. However, Motilal Oswal believes Waaree is among the companies best positioned to benefit from these long-term industry trends.
Conclusion
Motilal Oswal’s positive outlook on Waaree Energies is built around a simple thesis: India’s solar demand is growing faster than manufacturing capacity, and Waaree is expanding aggressively to capture that opportunity.
With demand increasingly shifting beyond utility-scale projects into rooftops, commercial installations and government-backed programmes, the brokerage believes the company has multiple growth drivers in place. Combined with its domestic and international expansion plans, these factors underpin Motilal Oswal’s target price of Rs 3,825 and its expectation of further upside in the stock.
Disclaimer : The stock rating, target price and projections mentioned above are those of Motilal Oswal and are provided solely for informational purposes. This article does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investments in equities are subject to market risks, execution risks, regulatory changes and sector-specific uncertainties. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
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