Synopsis : India's jewellery market is undergoing a structural shift as consumers increasingly move from local, unorganised jewellers to established brands. At the same time, organised players are expanding into smaller cities and pushing premium, design-led jewellery.
This has put listed jewellery stocks firmly on investors' radar.
According to Motilal Oswal, the sector's long-term growth is being driven by formalisation and premiumisation. The brokerage remains positive on Titan Company, Kalyan Jewellers and P N Gadgil Jewellers, while maintaining a Neutral stance on Senco Gold.
Among the four, Kalyan Jewellers offers the highest potential upside of 33% based on Motilal Oswal's target price.
Motilal Oswal's view
- Kalyan Jewellers: Buy | Target Rs 800 | Upside 33%
- P N Gadgil Jewellers: Buy | Target Rs 800 | Upside 27%
- Titan Company: Buy | Target Rs 6,000 | Upside 17%
- Senco Gold: Neutral | Target Rs 430 | Upside 6%
So, what explains the difference?
Organised jewellery market has room to grow
Motilal Oswal estimates that organised retailers now account for around 40-45% of India's jewellery market, compared with just 20-25% in FY19.
That means a significant portion of the market remains with unorganised players, giving established brands room to gain market share.
The brokerage estimates that the listed jewellery universe generated around Rs 1.4 lakh crore in revenue in FY26, with revenue growing at a 34% CAGR between FY22 and FY26.
Titan vs Kalyan: Brokerage's top picks
Motilal Oswal continues to prefer Titan and Kalyan Jewellers as its top picks.
Titan remains the largest player among the organised retailers tracked by the brokerage, with approximately 9% of India's jewellery market.
The brokerage has retained its Buy rating and a Rs 6,000 target price, implying around 17% upside.
Kalyan Jewellers, however, has considerably higher projected upside.
The brokerage has assigned a Rs 800 target price, implying approximately 33% upside.
One of the key factors is Kalyan's expansion beyond South India and its increasing presence in smaller cities, which could help the company capture additional market share.
PN Gadgil: Expansion is the key trigger
Motilal Oswal has also retained its Buy rating on P N Gadgil Jewellers with a Rs 800 target price, implying around 27% upside.
The brokerage sees the continued formalisation of India's jewellery market as a major opportunity for the company.
Store additions across Tier-2, Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities could become increasingly important as organised jewellery chains expand beyond India's largest urban markets.
The brokerage also highlighted the industry's move towards more asset-light expansion, where partners take on part of the inventory and capital expenditure requirements. This could support better returns on capital employed.
Why is Senco Gold the cautious pick?
Senco Gold is the outlier among the four.
Motilal Oswal has maintained a Neutral rating with a Rs 430 target price, implying only around 6% upside.
A major factor is the difference in premium or studded jewellery penetration.
Titan has a studded jewellery mix in the high-20% range, while Kalyan is around 30%.
By comparison, Senco Gold and P N Gadgil are closer to 10-11%.
This matters because premiumisation is emerging as another major growth driver for organised jewellery retailers.
What investors should watch
The brokerage expects the sector to benefit from three major structural trends:
The expansion trend is already visible. According to Motilal Oswal, around 68% of new organised jewellery stores added between June 2024 and June 2026 were located outside metros and Tier-1 cities.
Final verdict
Based purely on Motilal Oswal's estimates, Kalyan Jewellers offers the highest upside at 33%, followed by P N Gadgil at 27%.
Titan remains a preferred pick for investors looking for the sector's largest established organised player, while Senco Gold appears more conservatively positioned given the brokerage's Neutral rating and just 6% implied upside.
However, target prices are analyst estimates, not guaranteed returns. Jewellery companies remain exposed to gold prices, consumer demand, store execution, working-capital requirements and valuation risk.
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Disclaimer: This article is based on brokerage research and is intended for informational and educational purposes only. The ratings, target prices and estimates mentioned are those of Motilal Oswal and should not be considered personalised investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a SEBI-registered financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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