Synopsis: In recent announcements by the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Governor Shaktikanta Das projected India's real GDP growth for 2024-25 at 7.2%, with quarterly estimates ranging from 7.2% to 7.3%. This forecast shows an increase from previous projections and comes after the NSO's estimate of 8.2% growth for 2023-24.
RBI MPC: Governor Shaktikanta Das forecasts real GDP growth for 2024-25 at 7.2% overall, with quarterly projections of 7.3% for Q1, 7.2% for Q2, 7.3% for Q3, and 7.2% for Q4. He noted that "the risks are evenly balanced."
RBI MPC Announcements: In the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting announcements after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and the second of the fiscal year, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das estimated real GDP growth for 2024-25 at 7.2%.
He projected real GDP growth for 2024-25 at 7.3% in Q1, 7.2% in Q2, 7.3% in Q3, and 7.2% in Q4, emphasizing that "the risks are evenly balanced."
In his previous April announcements, Das had projected slightly different figures: 7.1% for Q1, 6.9% for Q2, 7% for Q3, and 7% for Q4, with an overall GDP growth estimate for FY25 at 7%, which has now been revised to 7.2%.
The latest RBI projections follow the NSO's estimate of 8.2% real GDP growth for India in 2023-24.
Domestic economic activity has remained resilient, with manufacturing activity gaining ground, strong growth in the eight core industries in April, a robust manufacturing PMI, and sustained buoyancy in the services sector, according to Governor Das. Private consumption is recovering, with rural demand improving due to enhanced farm-sector activity. Investment activity is also picking up, and non-gold, non-oil imports have entered positive territory.
Looking ahead, Das mentioned that the IMD's forecast of an above-normal monsoon is expected to boost kharif production, replenish reservoir levels, and strengthen agricultural activity, thereby enhancing rural consumption. Urban consumption remains strong as well.
The governor highlighted that healthy bank balance sheets and business optimism are favorable for investment activity. He also noted that external demand should benefit from improving global trade prospects.
In conclusion, Governor Shaktikanta Das's latest projections reflect a cautiously optimistic outlook for India's economic growth in 2024-25.
The RBI anticipates a real GDP growth rate of 7.2%, with consistent quarterly growth, underscoring balanced risks.
This forecast, buoyed by robust domestic economic activity, improving manufacturing and services sectors, and positive consumption trends, is a slight increase from previous estimates.
The expectation of a strong monsoon and healthy agricultural production further supports this optimistic view.
Additionally, favorable conditions for investment and global trade are expected to bolster India's economic prospects in the coming year.
Related Questions
1. What is the projected real GDP growth for India in 2024-25 according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das?
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das forecasts real GDP growth for 2024-25 at 7.2% overall.
2. What are the quarterly projections for real GDP growth in 2024-25?
The quarterly projections for real GDP growth in 2024-25 are 7.3% for Q1, 7.2% for Q2, 7.3% for Q3, and 7.2% for Q4.
3. How do the latest GDP projections compare to the previous April announcements?
In the previous April announcements, the projections were 7.1% for Q1, 6.9% for Q2, 7% for Q3, and 7% for Q4, with an overall GDP growth estimate of 7% for FY25, now revised to 7.2%.
4. What factors contribute to the positive outlook for India's economic growth?
The positive outlook is supported by resilient domestic economic activity, strong manufacturing and services sectors, recovering private consumption, and improving rural and urban demand.
5. How does the IMD's forecast impact the economic outlook?
The IMD's forecast of an above-normal monsoon is expected to boost kharif production, replenish reservoirs, strengthen agricultural activity, and enhance rural consumption.
