Synopsis: India’s exports to the US have fallen less than expected despite steep American tariffs, giving New Delhi a stronger bargaining position. As Washington shows signs of softening, India is preparing to push for tariff reductions and major trade concessions.
India has reshaped the narrative in its ongoing trade negotiations with the United States. Despite steep tariffs—some reaching as high as 50%—the Indian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, shrinking the expected impact and strengthening New Delhi's bargaining position.
According to a Reuters report, India is now positioned to negotiate significant tariff rollbacks from the US, even as President Donald Trump faces pressure to stabilize global trade dynamics.
Exports Decline, but Much Less Than Feared
In October, India’s exports to the US fell 8.6% compared to last year, reaching $6.3 billion. While both September and October reflected the burden of the high tariffs, the declines were far milder than anticipated.
This smaller-than-expected drop has given Indian negotiators confidence to argue from a position of strength.
A senior government official stated that India has avoided the severe fallout predicted from the 50% US tariffs. Though textile orders have dipped, India's broader economic stability has enabled the country to take a steady, strategic approach in trade discussions.
US May Ease Tariffs; India Looks for Concessions
Even as countries like Japan and South Korea signed early tariff deals with Washington, India has deliberately avoided rushing into any agreement.
Officials believe the US may eventually reduce its 25% tariff linked to Russian oil, potentially bringing it down to 15%.
In exchange, India may consider lowering tariffs on more than 80% of goods, while safeguarding sensitive sectors like agriculture.
Exporters Adapt With New Markets & Strategies
Indian exporters have recalibrated their market strategies to counter the tariff burden. Companies have:
- Expanded shipments to Africa and Europe,
- Offered extended delivery timelines,
- Provided discounts to retain American buyers.
According to the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), industries like apparel and footwear are absorbing as much as 20% additional costs to stay competitive.
Trade Figures Show Resilience
From April to October 2025, the United States remained India’s largest export destination, buying goods worth $52.12 billion.
Key export categories include:
- Engineering goods
- Pharmaceuticals
- Electronics
- Gems and jewellery
Following the US, India’s top export markets were:
- UAE — $22.14 billion
- Netherlands — $11.98 billion
- China — $10.03 billion
China also remains India’s largest import source, underscoring its reliance on global supply chains.
India Gains the Upper Hand
A mix of economic resilience, diversified export strategies, and diplomatic patience has put India in a commanding position.
As the US grapples with the broader impact of its tariff policies, New Delhi could secure a favourable deal that shapes global trade for years to come.
The next move in this high-stakes economic chess match could shift global commerce in unexpected ways.
Disclaimer: This article is based on publicly available information and official statements. Trade negotiations are ongoing, and outcomes may change as discussions progress.
