Synopsis: U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed an energy partnership between Pakistan and India, hinting that Pakistan could one day supply oil to its neighbor. But a closer examination of Pakistan’s current oil reserves and infrastructure raises major doubts about the feasibility of this vision.
Just hours after slapping a 25% tariff on Indian imports, Trump took to Truth Social to float the idea of Pakistan becoming an oil supplier to India. "Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling oil to India someday!" he wrote, igniting curiosity and confusion across diplomatic and energy sectors.
Can Pakistan Actually Deliver?
Pakistan currently holds around 353.5 million barrels of proven oil reserves, ranking 52nd globally. At its daily consumption rate of 550,000 barrels, the reserves would barely last two years for internal needs—let alone exports.
With daily production at just 88,000 barrels, the nation heavily relies on oil imports to meet 85% of its energy needs. Therefore, the idea of exporting oil anytime soon seems highly unlikely under current conditions.
Seismic Hopes vs. Ground Reality
Trump’s comment may have been influenced by recent seismic surveys in Pakistan’s Offshore Indus Basin. While some formations have shown potential, no drilling has confirmed any recoverable reserves. As per global petroleum classification standards, "potential formations" do not equal reserves unless proven through exploration and declared commercially viable.
Industry estimates suggest that even if viable reserves are discovered, it would take $5 billion and 4–5 years just to begin commercial development. This doesn't even include the cost of refineries, pipelines, or export infrastructure, which Pakistan currently lacks.
The Geopolitical Web
The proposed energy collaboration also runs into strategic complexities. China’s heavy investment in Pakistan's energy infrastructure via CPEC, particularly in Balochistan, poses potential conflicts of interest. Any U.S.-backed venture would need to navigate local insurgencies, political sensitivities, and existing foreign alliances.
The Bottom Line
While Trump’s proposal has made headlines, the math and reality don’t add up—yet. Until Pakistan significantly expands and proves its energy capacity, the idea of oil flowing from Islamabad to Delhi remains more of a geopolitical soundbite than an actionable plan.
Disclaimer: This article is based on currently available public data and industry insights. The feasibility and timelines of energy developments are subject to change with new discoveries, geopolitical decisions, and economic conditions.
